Disbelief of Crypto With Bitcoin Breaking All-time Highs
Bears get louder and louder as the price of bitcoin accelerates. They keep yelling that BTC intrinsic value is zero until they lose their voice.
As Bitcoin is closing in on a new all time high, I beg to ask the question how can one not this the world changing and the foundation of the financial industry shaking. Everything is changing and we are at a critical point where the cycle is nearing an epic run based on historical cycles and institutional adoption.
“But Bitcoin is in a bubble! It has no intrinsic value!”
Jamie Dimon said on October 11th, “I personally believe bitcoin is worthless”
Imagine being a bear for years and years only to be proven wrong time and time again. Imagine ignoring an opportunity to invest in a technology that will revolutionize the world.
Maybe you are thinking “ok sure, the technology is great, but how do you know the price is not in a bubble?”
There has never been a bubble that went hyperbolic and crashed 3 times! Bubbles burst once, not 3 times.
It is crazy how many still choose not to believe it, question their own opinions, or out right choose to ignore it. I think many have a hard time understanding it because crypto is like getting a market-to-market of network value and network value is exponential.
Crypto is like a commodity being built and the market trying to price it. Imagine creating oil and trying to price it.
Despite this disbelief by the majority, now could not be a better representation of historical market cycles.
BTC is nearing an all time high as sentiment is low and complacency is high. Bitcoin and crypto broadly is set disprove unbelievers yet again.
Reasons to be Bullish
Funding rates are not extreme. Only at 0.01% versus nearing 0.1% in early May 2021.
GBTC discount is absurdly high
Even after they announce the official filing to convert to an ETF
Performance of Sh*tcoins have lagged bitcoin - DOGE, ETC, LTC, BCH as examples. This shows speculation in the crypto markets is not extreme right now despite $64k BTC
Crypto Total Market Cap is 2 standard deviations from the mean of a log linear plot since January 2020
The feared Head & Shoulders for BTC is clearly invalidated
Crypto Fear & Greed Index is high but not extreme
Market Structure is strong. Higher highs and higher lows.
New BTC ETF officially trading
And let’s not forget the current cycle similarities
BTC Current vs BTC 2013
ETH Current vs BTC 2017
Final Thoughts
The current market reminds me of December 2020 at BTC was trying to break all time highs of ~$20k. Many thought that it would tap out before new highs, that there was no way it would break all time highs meaningfully. Yet here we are with $64k BTC and the broader retail market feels the same way after a May crash and summer lull.
Bears get louder and louder as the price of bitcoin accelerates. They keep yelling that BTC intrinsic value is zero until they lose their voice.
Bears want to talk about fundamental value but ignore clear signs that the bull market is back.
In my opinion, a mania phase blow off top is coming within the next 6 months with my highest probability in the December-February time period.
Authored by Derman Capital (Twitter)